So Cal foreclosures

My buddy Danny passed this along, and it is really damn sad:

http://culture11.com/blogs/theconfabulum/2008/10/02/foreclosure-alley/

I haven't read the whole thing, but I'm pretty sure that the new Wall St. "rescue" plan doesn't have much in there that's going to help people stay in their homes. I think that's mainly because, it's a lot easier to buy the securitized mortgages from a few big banks than it is to go around the country and try and restructure millions of mortgages in order to get them current again.

Plus, Wall St is being coy blaming all this on mortgages. The derivatives market they built is also to blame, but that one's too complicated for people to get. Much easier to blame "those reckless borrowers". Although it was funny to listen to Palin last night sounding like a populist, talking about greed and reforming Wall St. Does she have any idea which party she belongs to?

Twainism

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.

Mark Twain

"Things which cannot last, don't"

I love that quote, from some famous economist whose name I forgot when I finished grad school. But that's not important, what's important is this:

In early September, independents offered a divided verdict on Palin's experience; now they take the negative view by about 2 to 1. Nearly two-thirds of both independent men and women in the new poll said Palin has insufficient experience to run the White House.

Palin's popularity was doomed to come down to earth, just as soon as she started opening her mouth. McCain said this week that he isn't concerned about independents (and increasingly - conservatives) who don't like Palin. That's because Palin wasn't a pick designed to appeal to them. Her only job is to rally the base.

John McCain decided to go with a rally-the-base-culture-war strategy to win this election, and I'll bet the nastiness from him is about to get a lot worse now that polls show him down 8+ points. The problem with his strategy is sheer numbers. More registered Dems this time around, lots of new voters who like Obama 2-1 over McCain, and a more motivated Democratic party than a Republican one, in spite of the Palin pick.

Just read the math, and you'll feel very, very confident about where Obama is right now. Tonight's VP debate will be fun to watch, but it means nothing.

Back to 1997

Martin Wolf has an interesting column up today:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0fa9d526-8eec-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c,s01=1.html

In it, if you look close, you'll see an inflation adjusted analysis of the S&P 500. Notice where it is today? About the same place it was in 1997/1998.

So, after 10 years, with annual GDP growth positive for almost every quarter of those 10 years, the S&P 500 is exactly the same where it was 10 years ago. The total capitalization is likely different, since companies ebb and flow out of the index, and the overall amount of outstanding shares changes, so maybe this isn't such a big deal overall.

But if you are an index investor, like lots of people are in their 401Ks and IRAs, this means that you have made absolutely nothing in 10 years, if you were only holding S&P 500 ETFs. But don't feel too bad, it's the same for anybody living in the UK and investing in the FTSE 100.

The end of democracy?

I have often mused that it is quite possible that Democracy "doesn't scale". What I mean by that is that, democracy might work fine for a smaller country (i.e. Britain), but won't actually work when your population becomes so big and diverse that consensus on major issues cannot be found. This is especially true for large democracies that face tough challenges.

Take today's bailout vote. This whole bill stinks like 3 day old fish and 2nd day houseguests. HOWEVER, we have to do it. The financial system will fail, and if you've never seen this happen, let me tell you a bit firsthand what Argentina looked like in 2003. It was not pretty.

But the Republicans just couldn't bring themselves to do it. At the end of the day, they are more concerned about core principles than actually governing. And after all of John McCain's bullshit hysterics from last week about how he was going to save the day, it was HIS PARTY in the end that doomed the bill.

The markets will tank, badly, worldwide, and the political infighting the rest of this week will be intense. Democracy is failing us in a crisis, and the alternative, a benevolent dictatorship, is a job I've been coveting for years. So, fellow citizens, rise up and make me leader of this great land and I'll personally solve all of our problems by decree, since the US Congress isn't going to do it for us.

Are Americans smarter than I thought?

Well, it might have taken them a while to catch on, but it looks like Americans are starting to figure out that Sarah Palin is indeed bat-shit stupid and unqualified to be VP. Making McCain unqualified to be president, since he's the idiot who picked her.

Check out this video clip from CNN (hat tip: Chuck) Clearly the media is not going to roll over on this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8__aXxXPVc

Now check out her poll numbers. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is now at -10, well below every other person on either ticket. McCain is second lowest, Biden and Obama are on the upswing.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/28/75413/3350/471/612782

Could it be that Americans are actually a) paying attention to what McCain and Palin say and b) holding them accountable for their lunacy?

I'm afraid to dream.

Finally!

I knew somebody would put this up eventually! This is Sarah Palin's pageant moment in the swimsuit portion of the Miss Alaska competition.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/sarah-palins-beauty-pagea_n_129667.html

Dear God, please let her stay in the race. There is no humor in bailouts, but every moment Sarah Palin gets on camera has me cackling before she even opens her mouth.