"Things which cannot last, don't"

I love that quote, from some famous economist whose name I forgot when I finished grad school. But that's not important, what's important is this:

In early September, independents offered a divided verdict on Palin's experience; now they take the negative view by about 2 to 1. Nearly two-thirds of both independent men and women in the new poll said Palin has insufficient experience to run the White House.

Palin's popularity was doomed to come down to earth, just as soon as she started opening her mouth. McCain said this week that he isn't concerned about independents (and increasingly - conservatives) who don't like Palin. That's because Palin wasn't a pick designed to appeal to them. Her only job is to rally the base.

John McCain decided to go with a rally-the-base-culture-war strategy to win this election, and I'll bet the nastiness from him is about to get a lot worse now that polls show him down 8+ points. The problem with his strategy is sheer numbers. More registered Dems this time around, lots of new voters who like Obama 2-1 over McCain, and a more motivated Democratic party than a Republican one, in spite of the Palin pick.

Just read the math, and you'll feel very, very confident about where Obama is right now. Tonight's VP debate will be fun to watch, but it means nothing.