So Cal foreclosures

My buddy Danny passed this along, and it is really damn sad:

http://culture11.com/blogs/theconfabulum/2008/10/02/foreclosure-alley/

I haven't read the whole thing, but I'm pretty sure that the new Wall St. "rescue" plan doesn't have much in there that's going to help people stay in their homes. I think that's mainly because, it's a lot easier to buy the securitized mortgages from a few big banks than it is to go around the country and try and restructure millions of mortgages in order to get them current again.

Plus, Wall St is being coy blaming all this on mortgages. The derivatives market they built is also to blame, but that one's too complicated for people to get. Much easier to blame "those reckless borrowers". Although it was funny to listen to Palin last night sounding like a populist, talking about greed and reforming Wall St. Does she have any idea which party she belongs to?

Twainism

Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.

Mark Twain

"Things which cannot last, don't"

I love that quote, from some famous economist whose name I forgot when I finished grad school. But that's not important, what's important is this:

In early September, independents offered a divided verdict on Palin's experience; now they take the negative view by about 2 to 1. Nearly two-thirds of both independent men and women in the new poll said Palin has insufficient experience to run the White House.

Palin's popularity was doomed to come down to earth, just as soon as she started opening her mouth. McCain said this week that he isn't concerned about independents (and increasingly - conservatives) who don't like Palin. That's because Palin wasn't a pick designed to appeal to them. Her only job is to rally the base.

John McCain decided to go with a rally-the-base-culture-war strategy to win this election, and I'll bet the nastiness from him is about to get a lot worse now that polls show him down 8+ points. The problem with his strategy is sheer numbers. More registered Dems this time around, lots of new voters who like Obama 2-1 over McCain, and a more motivated Democratic party than a Republican one, in spite of the Palin pick.

Just read the math, and you'll feel very, very confident about where Obama is right now. Tonight's VP debate will be fun to watch, but it means nothing.

Back to 1997

Martin Wolf has an interesting column up today:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0fa9d526-8eec-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c,s01=1.html

In it, if you look close, you'll see an inflation adjusted analysis of the S&P 500. Notice where it is today? About the same place it was in 1997/1998.

So, after 10 years, with annual GDP growth positive for almost every quarter of those 10 years, the S&P 500 is exactly the same where it was 10 years ago. The total capitalization is likely different, since companies ebb and flow out of the index, and the overall amount of outstanding shares changes, so maybe this isn't such a big deal overall.

But if you are an index investor, like lots of people are in their 401Ks and IRAs, this means that you have made absolutely nothing in 10 years, if you were only holding S&P 500 ETFs. But don't feel too bad, it's the same for anybody living in the UK and investing in the FTSE 100.

The end of democracy?

I have often mused that it is quite possible that Democracy "doesn't scale". What I mean by that is that, democracy might work fine for a smaller country (i.e. Britain), but won't actually work when your population becomes so big and diverse that consensus on major issues cannot be found. This is especially true for large democracies that face tough challenges.

Take today's bailout vote. This whole bill stinks like 3 day old fish and 2nd day houseguests. HOWEVER, we have to do it. The financial system will fail, and if you've never seen this happen, let me tell you a bit firsthand what Argentina looked like in 2003. It was not pretty.

But the Republicans just couldn't bring themselves to do it. At the end of the day, they are more concerned about core principles than actually governing. And after all of John McCain's bullshit hysterics from last week about how he was going to save the day, it was HIS PARTY in the end that doomed the bill.

The markets will tank, badly, worldwide, and the political infighting the rest of this week will be intense. Democracy is failing us in a crisis, and the alternative, a benevolent dictatorship, is a job I've been coveting for years. So, fellow citizens, rise up and make me leader of this great land and I'll personally solve all of our problems by decree, since the US Congress isn't going to do it for us.

Are Americans smarter than I thought?

Well, it might have taken them a while to catch on, but it looks like Americans are starting to figure out that Sarah Palin is indeed bat-shit stupid and unqualified to be VP. Making McCain unqualified to be president, since he's the idiot who picked her.

Check out this video clip from CNN (hat tip: Chuck) Clearly the media is not going to roll over on this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8__aXxXPVc

Now check out her poll numbers. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is now at -10, well below every other person on either ticket. McCain is second lowest, Biden and Obama are on the upswing.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/28/75413/3350/471/612782

Could it be that Americans are actually a) paying attention to what McCain and Palin say and b) holding them accountable for their lunacy?

I'm afraid to dream.

Finally!

I knew somebody would put this up eventually! This is Sarah Palin's pageant moment in the swimsuit portion of the Miss Alaska competition.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/sarah-palins-beauty-pagea_n_129667.html

Dear God, please let her stay in the race. There is no humor in bailouts, but every moment Sarah Palin gets on camera has me cackling before she even opens her mouth.

The U.S. is hitting a wall

We have finally done it, finally found the limits of our own abilities, and we are standing on the cliff. We cannot fight two wars, a financial crisis, energy problems, and rising health care costs all at once. We are going to have to choose, and this next election is about this: Which candidate is going to step off the cliff, and which one will walk slowly away from the precipice?

McCain/Palin want more war, particularly with Iran, with no good strategy about how to win/get out of the two wars we are currently in. They will be spending every US dollar they get in taxes on war and bailing out Wall Street.

Obama may be screwed, in the sense that his energy and health care initiatives are likely to go nowhere for 2 years at best. But, he clearly is more pragmatic, less likely to make rash decisions, and more willing to confront the reality of the times we live in. Quote of the day from Andrew Sullivan:

We have less to fear from reality than from denial of that reality.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/500-dollar-oil.html

where is this guy from?

The NRA is worried about Barack Obama, wait for it, stealing your guns! What a surprise! I mean, it's not like they haven't said this about every Democratic politician for my entire life, right? This guy is new and more dangerous, and just where is this guy from anyway? That last line is a direct quote in the ad.

http://gawker.com/5053171/nra-ad-shoot-obama-before-he-steals-your-guns?autoplay=true

They should have just said, "what is this guy, some kind of crazy Muslim?"

Senate doing its job

Looks like Dodd's counter-proposal to the Paulson bailout seems to have some smart additions in terms of oversight, getting equity in return for buying the bad loans, and the politically popular but largely meaningless idea of limiting executive compensation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080922/ts_nm/financial_bailout_congress_dc

Let's now wait to hear the Bushies howl about how Democrats are delaying and putting the future of the world at risk. How come we can't just talk about this for 4 hours or so, what the hell is the rush to spend $700 billion when Bush and others have been saying for months that things were under control!

Stupid idiots, trying to play brinkmanship politics with this, just like they did with Iraq. Look out for the mushroom cloud on Wall Street if the Democrats don't do exactly what we say!

Are Democrats going to be that stupid twice? I'm afraid I know the answer.

Right and Left

Quiz question: When was the last time Paul Krugman and William Kristol agreed on anything?

Answer: The both hate the Paulson/Bernanke bail-out bill.

This could be a dramatic week in Washington.

Kristol: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/opinion/22kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Krugman: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/opinion/22krugman.html?hp

Michael Moore's new movie

Michael Moore has a new movie called Slacker Uprising. Don't know if it's any good or not, but you can watch it online for free in a variety of ways.

From Moore's email announcement:

"Slacker Uprising" chronicles the 62-city tour I did leading up to the 2004 election. It is electrifying to see the tens of thousands of young people who were ready then for the uprising -- and who, this year, are actually making it happen. This is my concert film tribute to the young voters who are going to save this country from four more years of Republican rule.

There are a number of ways, beginning at midnight tonight, that you can download or stream "Slacker Uprising" thanks to our distributor, Brave New Films:

1) Blip.tv will provide standard resolution streaming, free of commercials and advertising.
2) Amazon Video on Demand will provide a high quality version of the above stream.
3) iTunes will make it easy for you to download "Slacker Uprising" on your iTunes, iPod, or Apple TV, and view it there or transmit it to your television. This way, the film can be portable as well as for home viewing.
4) Hypernia is providing bandwidth, servers and management to host "Slacker Uprising" online, so you can download the film and view it at any time or burn it onto a DVD.

wackjob Christians

I grew up in a Southern Baptist church. I know all about Christian wackiness (as opposed to the vast majority of Christians who are reasonable folks).

This guy is a wackjob, and I normally wouldn't care, but he's trying to get Duke to change their mascot name. Apparently using the word "Devil" is offensive to him.

Can't we get these folks a job picking up trash off the highway, or something like that? Give them a project more useful than what they're working on now.

http://www.digtriad.com/news/local/article.aspx?storyid=111002&catid=57#comments

The Alaska Disasta

From an anti-Palin rally in Anchorage, that apparently drew huge crowds (hats off to Fiona for finding it):


Here's some text describing the event:

Never, have I seen anything like it in my 17 and a half years living in Anchorage . The organizers had someone walk the rally with a counter, and they clicked off well over 1400 people (not including the 90 counter-demonstrators). This was the biggest political rally ever, in the history of the state. I was absolutely stunned. The second most amazing thing is how many people honked and gave the thumbs up as they drove by. And even those that didn't honk looked wide-eyed and awe-struck at the huge crowd that was growing by the minute. This just doesn't happen here.

So, if you've been doing the math. Yes. The Alaska Women Reject Palin rally was significantly bigger than Palin's rally that got all the national media coverage!

War with Spain?

What the hell is this, 1898? Maybe McCain is old enough to remember war with Spain, but the rest of us sure don't.

In this interview, he refuses to say if he would meet with Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero. He does say he will meet with friends, and won't meet with those who wish the U.S. harm, but won't say which category Zapatero is in.

If you read Spanish, check it out here

Here's the things I can think of: Zapatero is the guy who pulled Spain out of the Coalition of the Willing in Iraq, he wants amnesty for illegal immigrants, and he's a leader of the Spanish Socialist party.

And McCain doesn't know if he would meet with him or not? America can't afford to lose any more natural friends, this guy will be an utter disaster as president. But then again, what do you expect from a Republican at this point?